Assessment if the demographic aging scale of the region's population

Abstract

Background. The current process of population aging manifests itself at the regional level with varying degrees of intensity, which should be taken into account when assessing the population's need for geriatric medical care and developing social support measures. Aim. To give a comprehensive description of the dynamics of special indicators of population aging and to assess the demographic aging scale of the population of the Irkutsk region. Material and methods. A comprehensive assessment of the dynamics of population aging was carried out using 6 special indicators of population aging and 3 indicators of demographic movement. The calculation of the values of the indicators was performed in accordance with the methodological provisions on demographic statistics. The scale of aging was calculated based on the results of determining the stages of aging using 4 parameters of population aging: the level of aging, the depth of aging, aging factors, and the rate of aging. The data source was the statistical accounting tables of Rosstat for the Irkutsk region: А12а_25 natural population movement; t_pt1n general results of population migration by incoming territories; 25_2PH population by sex and age. The number of statistical accounting tables separately for each municipality of the Irkutsk region and the region as a whole amounted to 99 units for each year under study. Results. The dynamics of the aging level parameter indicates an aggravation of the aging processes of the population, and not due to an increase in people at the age of longevity (from 75 to 90 years) and centenarians (90 years and older), but due to the population older than working age, women from 55 years old and men from 60 years up to the age of 75 years. Indicators of aging factors that characterize reproductive and migration compensatory mechanisms are at a level that does not allow compensating for the growing processes of population aging. The value of the aging rate parameter in terms of the growth rate of the aging coefficient in dynamics indicates the stability of the demographic aging of the population. An analysis of the scale of population aging in the Irkutsk region and its districts showed that the Irkutsk region has an average value of parameters and is at an intermediate stage between the aging and old population. Conclusion. The scale of the aging of the Irkutsk region is primarily due to the high value of the parameter of aging factors, the parameter of the level of aging is characterized by the presence of prerequisites for the transition to a more aggravated stage of population aging.