Impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in cities located in the Russian Arctic macroregion

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Climate warming in Russia is most pronounced in the Arctic, where it is accompanied by an increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves. This emerging risk factor for the health of the population in major cities has not yet received adequate scientific attention. To effectively plan for adaptation to these phenomena, it is crucial to understand their specific impacts in regions with different climate types. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of the associations between climatic factors and health is needed for informed decision-making and strategic adaptation planning. AIM: To assess the impact of heat waves and cold spells on excess age-specific mortality within the urban populations of the Arctic macroregion. Furthermore, we analyzed the potential differences in the studied outcomes across climate types, ranging from marine to continental. METHODS: We analyzed the daily counts of deaths in Arkhangelsk, Magadan, Murmansk, and Yakutsk from 1999 through 2019. Poisson generalized linear regression models were employed to determine the relative mortality risks during heat waves and cold spells. All models accounted for potential lagged effects, seasonal and weekly patterns, and long-term mortality trends. Pearsons chi-squared tests were used to study the differences between the effects of heat and cold, as well as site-specific and age-specific variations in mortality. RESULTS: Effects of the studied climatic phenomena were more pronounced in continental than in marine climate. The age group 65+ years was more susceptible to the effects of extreme heat and cold than the middle-age group. Cold spells had a greater impact on the health of the residents of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, and Magadan than heat waves, while the opposite was observed in Yakutsk. Cerebrovascular mortality during heath waves was 1.69 (95% CI: 1.342.13) times as high as during periods with normal temperature in the age-group 65+ in Yakutsk while cold spells were associated with 1.54 (95% CI: 1.182.01) greater risk of death from respiratory causes in the same age-group in Arkhangelsk. CONCLUSION: Our findings can be utilized by public health authorities to effectively prevent further fatalities among subarctic populations during heatwaves and cold spells.