Mathematical justification of advantage of Hodgkin's lymphoma risk-adapted therapy in children and adolescents

Abstract

The aim of the study was confirmation of advantage risk-adapted therapy by creation of mathematical models of the individual forecast of Hodgkin’s lymphoma in children and adolescents. Material and methods. Data of 138 patients with Hodgkin’s lymphoma aged from 4 to 18 years old (median 14 years old) treated on risk-adapted programs are included in the investigation. Results. Two factors significant increased recurrence risk at criteria selection and assessment: disease IV stage (correlation coefficient of 0,1904, p=0,024) and B symptoms (correlation coefficient of 0,1876, p=0,026). It wasn’t revealed collinear signs. The regression equation looked as follows: y =-0,156702+0,056748Х st + 0,092922Х В; the determination coefficient was 0,05241494. Separate elements and the whole equation stopped being significant in multiple regression analysis that doesn’t allow to use them for forecasting of lymphoma recurrence. Conclusion. Thus, inclusion in the correlation analysis of the parameter «treatment program» levels influence of adverse factors on the recurrence, and proves adequacy of selection of therapy burden and advantage of risk-adapted protocols before the unified programs. It is once again proved that it is necessary to consider the principles of «response-adapted therapy» when effective treatment partially compensate negative influence of some adverse signs, minimizing their weight in prognostic models.