Heat and cold waves on the Crimean Peninsula and their impact on population health

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Climate change has a significant impact on the population health including morbidity and mortality. The studies presented in this paper present characteristics of heat and cold waves on the Crimean Peninsula. AIM: To assess the heat and cold wave characteristics, identify differences in the wave characteristics depending on the coastal and mainland location of climatotherapeutic centers on the Crimean Peninsula. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In our research we used standard statistical data treatment methods. Moreover, data visualization techniques allowed identifying zones of maximum temperature values. Heat and cold waves were defined using the 3rd and the 97th percentiles of the average daily air temperatures. This approach allows considering the intensity and duration of the events under study. Measurements of the surface air temperature included eight observations per day at 19 stations on the Crimean Peninsula for the period from 2006 to 2021. Distribution of the permanently residing population in the Crimea and the city of Sevastopol by age and gender was analyzed using the Rosstat data. RESULTS: As many as 43.5% of the population of the Crimean Peninsula have increased risk of exposure to extreme air temperatures. Having applied the threshold values of the 3rd and the 97th percentiles of the temperature, we identified the periods of heat and cold waves at each station. Even though the Crimean Peninsula has a warm and humid climate, 1 to 4 cold and heat waves have been observed at each station per year. At the same time, the total intensity of cold waves was more than twice the total intensity of heat waves. CONCLUSION: The presented assessment of heat and cold wave characteristics on the Crimean Peninsula, using 3% and 97% percentiles of the distribution of the average daily air temperature over several years, provides the evidence for developing the measures to reduce the negative impact of extreme temperatures on human health on the Crimean Peninsula.