Regional climate projections of heavy precipitation over the Balkan Peninsula

Abstract

This article presents climate change projections of heavy (above a certain threshold) precipitation under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the territory of the Balkan Peninsula. The focus is on convective rainfall which, if significant, can damage infrastructure and cause casualties. For this purpose, RegCM4.4.5 regional climate model with 20 km resolution was used for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2099 compared with the reference period 1975–2004. The change in the number of heavy rainfalls is determined by using the thresholds in the Meteoalarm program corresponding to the ‘yellow’ code. It is found that the largest changes in the number of convective precipitation events are in the coastal and mountainous areas. The increase in the number of cases of heavy rainfalls does not exclude the decrease in the amount of precipitation in these areas. This can be explained by the increase in the period in which these precipitations are possible due to the increase in temperatures.