Future temperature and urban heat island changes in Budapest: a comparative study based on the HMS-ALADIN and SURFEX models

Author:

Allaga-Zsebeházi Gabriella

Abstract

Cities, due to their warmer and dryer local climate in addition to their dense population, are subjected to large future climate change risks. Land surface models, with detailed urban parameterization schemes, serve as an adequate tool to refine the rough regional climate projections over the cities. In this study, the future temperature conditions in Budapest are studied with the SURFEX land surface model (LSM), driven by the HMS-ALADIN5.2 regional climate model (RCM) and considering the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario. Special attention is dedicated to explore the differences between the RCM and LSM in terms of the results, their interpretation, and further use in impact models. According to the investigated model combination, the winter season may warm the most, with 1.9 °C in 2021–2050 and 4.3 °C in 2071–2100, although the magnitude of this change is smaller in SURFEX than in ALADIN. Besides the mean changes, four climate indices, based on high and low temperature thresholds, were studied, and it was found that the low temperature indices (frost days and very cold days) may relatively decrease more in SURFEX compared to ALADIN over Budapest, and in the city center compared to the suburbs and rural areas. In addition, the urban heat island (UHI) intensity is projected to decrease in SURFEX mainly in spring and summer (by 2071–2100 with 0.35 °C and 0.32 °C, respectively). Finally, a simple method is provided to correct the SURFEX temperature fields, using the ALADIN model, with eliminated systematic biases and the simulated UHI field.

Publisher

Idojaras

Subject

Atmospheric Science

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3