Urban Morphology and Green Spaces Changes in Model Town, The Oldest Settlement of Lahore, Using Satellite Data

Abstract

Amidst the rapid urban expansion transforming cities worldwide, this study explores three decades (1990-2021) of urban expansion in Model Town, Lahore, revealing how rapid development has affected Land Surface Temperature (LST) and green spaces in this historically unique Model town. Utilizing Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI satellite imagery, we calculated the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and applied an index-based classification technique to quantify changes in built-up and non-built-up land. The results reveal a substantial increase in built-up area from 2.667 km² to 4.969 km² in Model Town, and from 455.45 km² to 807.40 km² in Lahore. Concurrently, the mean LST rose from 27.49℃ to 30.62℃ in Model Town, and from 25.72℃ to 29.17℃ in Lahore, indicating a steady increase over the study period. Additionally, vegetative cover decreased significantly, with a 13.82% reduction in Lahore and a 128.47% reduction in Model Town. These findings underscore the critical need for sustainable urban planning to manage the adverse effects of rapid urbanization on temperature and green spaces.