Factors of success of priority investment projects in the sphere of forest exploitation in Russia: econometric analysis

Abstract

Objective: to identify the factors that determined the success of investment projects in the field of forest development on the basis of available information about the enterprises – applicants for such projects.Methods: regression analysis of binary choice models, logistic regression.Results: the key constraints of the development of the Russian forest sector are identified. The review of the most relevant scientific research on the topic of investments into forest complex is carried out. Taking into account the identified problems and the analysis of the global experience in solving them, the most promising mechanism in this context was identified – that is, state support for investment projects from the priority list in the field of forest development. Based on a sample of 200 projects, a logit regression model was evaluated, which determines the impact of project parameters on the probability of their successful implementation. The hypothesis that there is a statistically significant impact on the success of investment projects was confirmed for a number of factors: the average revenue and average cost of fixed assets of the enterprise, the absence of employees in the organization, the connection of the enterprise with foreign capital and the fact that the enterprise has been unprofitable for the past three years.Scientific novelty: for the first time, estimates were made of the contribution of the forest complex enterprises’ characteristics to the probability of successful implementation of priority investment projects in the field of forest development.Practical signifi       : the high predictive ability of the model allows using information about the project success determinants to adjust the mechanism for providing support, which will enable to increase the share of successfully implemented projects and therefore increase the effectiveness of this measure of stimulating investment in the development of the Russian forestry industry.