THE EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE CROATIAN TOURIST SECTOR

Abstract

Purpose – The COVID-19 pandemic, unprecedented in terms of the speed at which it spread globally, affected the whole world swiftly after the initial outbreak and has produced heterogeneous effects on various industrial sectors and particularly pronounced effects on the tourism industry. This paper analyses the effect of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic through Europe on the tourist stocks in Croatia by means of application of the event study methodology. Methodology – The analysis starts with a descriptive overview of the market-wide performance of different sectors in the period before, during and after the initial pandemic outbreak and subsequently explicitly tests for the COVID-19 outbreak effects on the tourist sector. First, a 35- day event window is specified so that important events related to the pandemic can be identified. Second, the first officially reported COVID-19 incidence in Italy and the World Health Organization’s declaration of a global pandemic are used as identified events in a shorter 10day window event study estimation. Findings – The results robustly point to the significant negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the returns of tourist stocks on the Zagreb Stock Exchange. However, the overall results do not provide evidence of the relatively stronger COVID-19 effects on the tourist sector, but rather equal effects across different sectors. Contribution – This research offers a novel comprehensive review of the literature regarding the research topic and provides insights into the sectoral effects of the global financial shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the local market. As this pandemic is increasing the market volatility, this research will be of importance to fund managers and carries implications for economic policy in terms of sectoral stimulus distribution and debt refinancing.