DOES TOURISM ACTIVITY AFFECT MIGRATION? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM CROATIA

Abstract

Purpose – Since the Census in 2011, Croatia has seen a substantial population decline. Given the high contribution of tourism to the Croatian economy, this paper empirically analyses the relationship between population migration, namely total net migration and net migration abroad, and tourism activity. Methodology – The research design of this paper is based on quantitative econometric panel data analysis using annual data for cities and municipalities in Croatia between 2002 and 2019. A oneway and two-way fixed effects model are used for the estimation of the regression model coefficients. Findings – The set models provide insight into the relationship between net migration or migration abroad and tourism activity. Tourism can be seen as a generator of demographic change, especially in rural and less developed areas, as it generates employment opportunities and, thus, the opportunity for permanent residency. Contribution – The main contribution of this paper is the novel use of such detailed data at the geographical level that spans over two decades. This generates empirical insights that hold high levels of external validity. A further important aspect of the paper is the analysis of the connection between population migration and tourism activity in the context of Croatia's accession to the European Union and verification of the theoretically grounded expectation that tourism activity as pull factor is positively related to population net migration.