Internal risk assessment of development and implementation of the state programs

Author:

Denisova A. I.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. State University of Management

Abstract

The article shows the need to develop methods for quantifying the associated internal risks of planning and implementing government programs. The author demonstrates an approach to assessing the risk magnitude of programs by analyzing the ranges of stability of the program’s action plan parameters. A test case based on retrospective data from the state program of the Arkhangelsk region shows the applicability and adequacy of this approach. As part of the test case, the researcher showed the possibility of adapting the program’s action plan due to the influence of associated risks, assessing the magnitude of the program’s associated risks as indicators of the most problematic areas of implementation, and comparing the results of calculations with actual risks. The software implementation of the algorithms for the formation and evaluation of the program plan was carried out in the form of software developed by the author in the Python.

Publisher

State University of Management

Subject

General Medicine

Reference16 articles.

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2. Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Monitoring the implementation of state programs of the Russian Federation in the I–III quarters of 2020. https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/file/f8d449b176a3ff1735af63da3b18fc-2c/I-III_2020.pdf (accessed 12.05.2022).

3. Portal of State Programs of Russian Federation. Degree of achievement of targets. https://programs.gov.ru/Portal/analytics/achieving_indicators ?year=2020&grouping=byProgram (accessed 31.05.2022).

4. Denisova A.I., Pisareva O.M. Empirical analysis of risk assessment and accounting in the development and implementation of strategic planning documents: regulatory requirements and methodological support. In: Kleiner G.B. (ed.) Strategic planning and enterprise development: Proceedings of the XX All-Russian Symposium, Moscow, 9-10 April 2019. Moscow: Central Economic and Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences; 2019. P. 404–406.

5. Naumov S.N., Tebyakin А.А. Growth reserves: internal risk management as a tool for improving the effectiveness of the state programs implementation. Economic security. 2021;4(2):247–260. https://doi.org/10.18334/ecsec.4.2.112148

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