Approaches to the Modeling and Use of a Long-term Budget Projection at the Regional Level

Abstract

In compliance with the requirements of the budget legislation the constituent entities of the Russian Federation work out and adopt long-term budget forecasts. The major drawbacks of the current regional forecasts are inadequate methodology of calculating indicators (revenues, expenditures, deficit, debt) and an indistinct role of forecasting in the budgeting process. The article gives specific recommendations on assessing the parameters of revenues and expenditures of the regional budget for a long term horizon. The author focuses on the relationship of the long-term budget forecasts with the other documents of strategic planning (notably, forecasts of socio-economic development). The author suggests various formulas for calculating revenues and expenditures of regional budgets in the long term, as well as options for detailed elaboration of these parameters depending on the availability of background information and the peculiar features of the region. The article also formulates recommendations on the formalized approaches to assess the long-term consequences of the region’s budget policy, as well as to quantify external challenges on a long-term budget forecast model. Approbation of the proposed approaches was carried out on the example of a simulation model based on the data of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug.