Terrorism and its global biomedical consequences (2011 to 2020)

Abstract

Relevance. Global terrorist activity is still far from decreasing, demanding extra studies regarding the risk indicators and compelling the countries to unite their efforts to combat terrorism across the world.The study objective is to analyze worldwide biomedical consequences of terrorism from 2011 to 2020 in order to optimize counterterrorism activities.Methods. The study analyzed global indicators of terrorist activities collected in the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) [https://www.start.umd.edu/]. The analyses focused on structure, dynamics and risks regarding fatalities and casualties (injuries) of terrorist attacks (TAs), including by type of attack, weapon, and incident location. The risk analysis focused on the risk of being affected by terrorist attack (death or injury) per 1 million of global population (Ч10-6). Mean data, the upper and lower quartiles, and the median were calculated (Me [Q1; Q3]).Results and analysis. From 2011 to 2020 the world’s annual average number of TAs was 110 thousand, or 10.7 [8.5; 14.1] thousand, with 25.8 thousand, or 23.1 [20.4; 35.3] thousand of people killed and 28.4 thousand, or 25.5 [18.8; 40.6] thousand of people affected. The polynomial trendlines for these indicators are inverted U-curves, showing less data in the latest observation period. TAs without biomedical consequences account for about 50%. However, the most severe medical and biological consequences were associated with the use of explosives and firearms, responsible for 84.4 % of all deaths and 91.4 % of all injuries. Massive sanitary losses associated with this type of TAs are a major challenge for medical care providers. 91.4 % of all TAs targeted military personnel, police officers, individual residents (or bystanders), government and business officials, responsible for 86.8% of all deaths and 84.2 % of all injuries. These population cohorts were in the risk groups for terrorism. The average individual risk of TA exposure among the world population stood at 1.49 • 10–6 incidents/(person • year), with the risk of death 3.49 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year) and trauma (injury) 3.87 • 10–6 injuries/(person • year). Meanwhile, according to the calculations by the International Labour Organization, the global average annual risk of death due to occupational injury for the same timespan (2011–2020) was by factors higher and amounted to (3.83 ± 0.13) • 10–4 deaths/(person • year).Conclusion. Terrorism is pursuing social instability, intimidation, and engulfing panic among the population, rather than medical and biological consequences. Considering that terrorism is impossible to eradicate completely across the world, it can be minimized by optimizing counterterrorism activities, based on TA weapon information or incident location.