Assessment of current climate conditions changes in the territory of Ciscaucasia for the purposes of forecasting winter wheat yield

Abstract

Аim. Assessment of current climate changes in the territory of Ciscaucasia in order to predict the yield of winter wheat.Methods .Integral indicators of climatic conditions for agricultural production were employed. For the investigations, we selected five‐year periods for which the meteorological parameters were averaged, and to identify trends the data of specific five‐year periods were compared with the average value for the entireseries of observations (1960‐2020).Results. The deviation of precipitation in April was highest in 2011‐2015, when it increased by 22 mm, and in 1986‐1990 and 1991‐1995, when it decreased by 15 and 10 mm respectively. In Eastern Ciscaucasia,where conditions are more arid than in the Western and Central regions, in both the rise in air temperature and the amount of precipitation, especially in April and May, increased in the 21stcentury for the entire period of active vegetation.Conclusion.It was established that the value of the hydrothermal coefficient practically did not change during the 1960‐2020 period. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was an increase in productivity against the background of a relatively high level of annual precipitation and this stability is confirmed at the present time. There is a very close relationship between natural and climatic factors and the level of winter wheat yield.