Hepatitis B time series in Xinjiang, China (2006–2021): change point detection based on the Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test
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Published:2024
Issue:2
Volume:21
Page:2458-2469
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ISSN:1551-0018
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Container-title:Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
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language:
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Short-container-title:MBE
Author:
Yang Liping1, Xie Na2, Yao Yanru3, Wang Chunxia4, Tian Maozai4, Wang Kai4
Affiliation:
1. College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830017, China 2. Department of Immunization Programme, Xinjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Urumqi 830054, China 3. College of Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China 4. College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830017, China
Abstract
<abstract><p>Hepatitis B is a major global challenge, but there is a lack of epidemiological research on hepatitis B incidence from a change point perspective. This study aimed to fill this gap by identifying significant change points and trends in hepatitis time series in Xinjiang, China. The datasets were obtained from the Xinjiang Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The Mann-Kendall-Sneyers (MKS) test was used to detect change points and trend changes on the hepatitis B time series of 14 regions in Xinjiang, and the effectiveness of this method was validated by comparing it with the binary segmentation (BS) and segment regression (SR) methods. Based on the results of change point analysis, the prevention and control policies and measures of hepatitis in Xinjiang were discussed. The results showed that 8 regions (57.1%) with at least one change fell within the 95% confidence interval (CI) in all 14 regions by the MKS test, where five regions (Turpan (TP), Hami (HM), Bayingolin (BG), Kyzylsu Kirgiz (KK), Altai (AT)) were identified at one change point, two change points existed for two regions (Aksu (AK), Hotan (HT)) and three change points was detected in 1 region (Bortala (BT)). Most of the change points occurred at both ends of the sequence. More change points indicated an upward trend in the front half of the sequence, while in the latter half, many change points indicated a downward trend prominently. Finally, in comparing the results of the three change point tests, the MKS test showed a 61.5% agreement (8/13) with the BS and SR.</p></abstract>
Publisher
American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)
Subject
Applied Mathematics,Computational Mathematics,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,Modeling and Simulation,General Medicine
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