Ultra-short-term solar forecasting with reduced pre-acquired data considering optimal heuristic configurations of deep neural networks

Abstract

<abstract> <p>Forecasting solar irradiance, particularly Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), has drawn much interest recently due to the rising demand for renewable energy sources. Many works have been proposed in the literature to forecast GHI by incorporating weather or environmental variables. Nevertheless, the expensive cost of the weather station hinders obtaining meteorological data, posing challenges in generating accurate forecasting models. Therefore, this work addresses this issue by developing a framework to reliably forecast the values of GHI even if meteorological data are unavailable or unreliable. It achieves this by leveraging lag observations of GHI values and applying feature extraction capabilities of the deep learning models. An ultra-short-term GHI forecast model is proposed using the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) algorithm, considering optimal heuristic configurations. In addition, to assess the efficacy of the proposed model, sensitivity analysis of different input variables of historical GHI observations is examined, and its performance is compared with other commonly used forecasting algorithm models over different forecasting horizons of 5, 15, and 30 minutes. A case study is carried out, and the model is trained and tested utilizing real GHI data from solar data located in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Results reveal the importance of employing historical GHI data in providing precise forecasting outcomes. The developed CNN-based model outperformed in ultra-short-term forecasting, showcasing average root mean square error results across different forecasting horizons: 2.262 W/m² (5min), 30.569 W/m² (15min), and 54.244 W/m² (30min) across varied day types. Finally, the findings of this research can permit GHI to be integrated into the power grid and encourage the development of sustainable energy systems.</p> </abstract>