COVID-19 propagation and the usefulness of awareness-based control measures: A mathematical model with delay

Abstract

<abstract><p>The current emergence of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) has put the world in threat. Social distancing, quarantine and governmental measures such as lockdowns, social isolation, and public hygiene are helpful in fighting the pandemic, while awareness campaigns through social media (radio, TV, etc.) are essential for their implementation. On this basis, we propose and analyse a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission influenced by awareness campaigns through social media. A time delay factor due to the reporting of the infected cases has been included in the model for making it more realistic. Existence of equilibria and their stability, and occurrence of Hopf bifurcation have been studied using qualitative theory. We have derived the basic reproduction number ($ R_0 $) which is dependent on the rate of awareness. We have successfully shown that public awareness has a significant role in controlling the pandemic. We have also seen that the time delay destabilizes the system when it crosses a critical value. In sum, this study shows that public awareness in the form of social distancing, lockdowns, testing, etc. can reduce the pandemic with a tolerable time delay.</p></abstract>