Tsunami damage estimation in Esmeraldas, Ecuador using fragility functions

Abstract

<abstract> <p>The current study investigated the probable impact from a tsunami to a populated area located along the northwest ecuadorian coast, specifically in the key oil-industrial city of esmeraldas. a numerical tsunami simulation was performed considering the seismological and tectonic aspects of the area. The damage probability was calculated using fragility functions (ffs). Briefly, 16 cases of source models with slightly different fault parameters were tested, where one was selected as the worst scenario of tsunami inundation. This scenario was a hypothetic earthquake case (mw 8.7) located in front of esmeraldas city, approximately 100 km offshore along the ecuador—colombia trench, with three shallow fault segments (top depth of 10 km), a strike aligned with the trench axis, a middle dip angle of 28°, assuming large slips of 5 to 15 m, and a rake angle of 90°. The results from the numerical simulation were comparable to a similar study previously conducted and with those of historically documented data. The tsunami damage estimation using FFs resulted in estimated damages of 50% and 44% in exposed buildings and population, respectively. Results also showed that the most impacted areas were located next to the coastal shoreline and river. tourism, oil exports, and port activities, in general, would be affected in this scenario; thus, compromising important industries that support the national budget. Results from this study would assist in designing or improving tsunami risk reduction strategies, disaster management, use of coastal zones, and planning better policies.</p> </abstract>