Evaluations of heterogeneous epidemic models with exponential and non-exponential distributions for latent period: the Case of COVID-19

Abstract

<abstract><p>Most of heterogeneous epidemic models assume exponentially distributed sojourn times in infectious states, which may not be practical in reality and could affect the dynamics of the epidemic. This paper investigates the potential discrepancies between exponential and non-exponential distribution models in analyzing the transmission patterns of infectious diseases and evaluating control measures. Two SEIHR models with multiple subgroups based on different assumptions for latency are established: Model Ⅰ assumes an exponential distribution of latency, while Model Ⅱ assumes a gamma distribution. To overcome the challenges associated with the high dimensionality of GDM, we derive the basic reproduction number ($ R_{0} $) of the model theoretically, and apply numerical simulations to evaluate the effect of different interventions on EDM and GDM. Our results show that considering a more realistic gamma distribution of latency can change the peak numbers of infected and the timescales of an epidemic, and GDM may underestimate the infection eradication time and overestimate the peak value compared to EDM. Additionally, the two models can produce inconsistent predictions in estimating the time to reach the peak. Our study contributes to a more accurate understanding of disease transmission patterns, which is crucial for effective disease control and prevention.</p></abstract>