Data-driven assessment of immune evasion and dynamic Zero-COVID policy on fast-spreading Omicron in Changchun
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Published:2023
Issue:12
Volume:20
Page:21692-21716
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ISSN:1551-0018
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Container-title:Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
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language:
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Short-container-title:MBE
Author:
Wang Kun1, Wang Peng2, Jiang Zhengang2, Wang Lu1, Zhou Linhua1, Qi Dequan1, Yin Weishi1, Meng Pinchao1
Affiliation:
1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China 2. Jilin Provincial Joint Key Labortory of Big Data Science and Engineering, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China
Abstract
<abstract><p>Due to its immune evasion capability, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization. The spread of Omicron in Changchun (i.e., the capital of Jilin province in northeast of China) during the spring of 2022 was successfully curbed under the strategy of a dynamic Zero-COVID policy. To evaluate the impact of immune evasion on vaccination and other measures, and to understand how the dynamic Zero-COVID measure stopped the epidemics in Changchun, we establish a compartmental model over different stages and parameterized the model with actual reported data. The model simulation firstly shows a reasonably good fit between our model prediction and the data. Second, we estimate the testing rate in the early stage of the outbreak to reveal the real infection size. Third, numerical simulations show that the coverage of vaccine immunization in Changchun and the regular nucleic acid testing could not stop the epidemic, while the 'non-pharmaceutical' intervention measures utilized in the dynamic Zero-COVID policy could play significant roles in the containment of Omicron. Based on the parameterized model, numerical analysis demonstrates that if one wants to achieve epidemic control by fully utilizing the effect of 'dynamic Zero-COVID' measures, therefore social activities are restricted to the minimum level, and then the economic development may come to a halt. The insight analysis in this work could provide reference for infectious disease prevention and control measures in the future.</p></abstract>
Publisher
American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)
Subject
Applied Mathematics,Computational Mathematics,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,Modeling and Simulation,General Medicine
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