Visual analysis of social events and stock market volatility in China and the USA during the pandemic

Abstract

<abstract> <p>The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most severe infectious diseases in recent decades, and has had a significant impact on the global economy, and the stock market. Most existing studies on stock market volatility during the pandemic have been conducted from a data science perspective, with statistical analysis and mathematical models often revealing the superficial relationship between Covid and the stock market at the data level. In contrast, few studies have explored the relationship between more specialised aspects of the pandemic. Specifically, the relationship found between major social events and the stock market. In this work, a multi-source, data-based relationship analysis method is proposed, that collects historical data on significant social events and related stock data in China and the USA, to further explore the potential correlation between stock market index fluctuations and the impact of social events by analysing cross-timeline data. The results suggest and offer more evidence that social events do indeed impact equity markets, and that the indices in both China and the USA were also affected more by the epidemic in 2020 than in 2021, and these indices became less affected by the epidemic as it became the world adapted. Moreover, these relationships may also be influenced by a variety of other factors not covered in this study. This research, so far, is in its initial stage, and the methodology is not rigorous and cannot be applied as an individual tool for decision; however, it could potentially serve as a supplementary tool and provide a multi-dimensional basis for stock investors and policymakers to make decisions.</p> </abstract>