Modeling the effects of Prophylactic behaviors on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in West Africa

Abstract

<abstract><p>Various general and individual measures have been implemented to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 since its emergence in China. Several phenomenological and mechanistic models have been developed to inform and guide health policy. Many of these models ignore opinions about certain control measures, although various opinions and attitudes can influence individual actions. To account for the effects of prophylactic opinions on disease dynamics and to avoid identifiability problems, we expand the SIR-Opinion model of Tyson et al. (2020) to take into account the partial detection of infected individuals in order to provide robust modeling of COVID-19 as well as degrees of adherence to prophylactic treatments, taking into account a hybrid modeling technique using Richard's model and the logistic model. Applying the approach to COVID-19 data from West Africa demonstrates that the more people with a strong prophylactic opinion, the smaller the final COVID-19 pandemic size. The influence of individuals on each other and from the media significantly influences the susceptible population and, thus, the dynamics of the disease. Thus, when considering the opinion of susceptible individuals to the disease, the view of the population at baseline influences its dynamics. The results are expected to inform public policy in the context of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.</p></abstract>