Analysis of the current status of TB transmission in China based on an age heterogeneity model

Abstract

<abstract><p>Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease transmitted through the respiratory system. China is one of the countries with a high burden of TB. Since 2004, an average of more than 800,000 cases of active TB has been reported each year in China. Analyzing the case data from 2004 to 2018, we found significant differences in TB incidence by age group. A model of TB is put forward to explore the effect of age heterogeneity on TB transmission. The nonlinear least squares method is used to obtain the key parameters in the model, and the basic reproduction number <italic>R_v</italic> = 0.8017 is calculated and the sensitivity analysis of <italic>R_v</italic> to the parameters is given. The simulation results show that reducing the number of new infections in the elderly population and increasing the recovery rate of elderly patients with the disease could significantly reduce the transmission of TB. Furthermore, the feasibility of achieving the goals of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy in China is assessed, and we obtained that with existing TB control measures it will take another 30 years for China to reach the WHO goal to reduce 90% of the number of new cases by the year 2049. However, in theory it is feasible to reach the WHO strategic goal of ending TB by 2035 if the group contact rate in the elderly population can be reduced, though it is difficult to reduce the contact rate.</p></abstract>