Analysis and Bayesian estimation of a model for Chikungunya dynamics with relapse: An outbreak in Acapulco, Mexico

Abstract

<abstract><p>Chikungunya is a vector-borne viral disease transmitted by <italic>Aedes aegypti</italic> and <italic>Aedes albopictus</italic> mosquitoes. It does not have any specific treatment, and there is no vaccine. Recent epidemiological data have indicated that a relapse of the infection can occur within three months of the initial infection; however, until now, mathematical models for the spread of the disease have not considered this factor. We propose a mathematical model for the transmission of the Chikungunya virus that considers relapse. We calculated the basic reproductive number $ (R_0) $ of the disease by using the next-generation operator method. We proved the existence of a forward bifurcation. We determined the existence and the global stability of the equilibrium points by using the Lyapunov function method. We fitted the model to data from an outbreak in 2015 in Acapulco, Mexico to estimate the model parameters and $ R_0 $ with the Bayesian approach via a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. In the local sensitivity analysis, we found that the fraction of infected individuals who become asymptomatic has a strong impact on the basic reproductive number and makes some control measures insufficient. The impact of the fraction of infected individuals who become asymptomatic should be considered in Chikungunya control strategies.</p></abstract>