Evaluation and prediction of the connect index between the Belt and Road countries and China based on the DANP method

Abstract

<abstract> <p>Interconnection is the priority direction of the Belt and Road initiative, which can provide substantial assistance to win-win cooperation. This study establishes a new indicator system from the five dimensions of policy, infrastructure, trade, finance, and people-to-people, evaluates the connect index of 63 Belt and Road countries from 2013 to 2020 based on the DEMATEL-ANP method which removes the potential subjective interference and interaction between indicators, and predicts the trend of the connect index by using the grey model. The findings indicate that the five dimensions of the Belt and Road connectivity have unevenly developed, among which the policy coordination has achieved the least. Singapore, Russia, and Malaysia have the highest connect index, and we can find that the 10 countries with the highest connect index are basically from East Asia &amp; Pacific and Europe &amp; Central Asia, which possess large economic and geographical differences. Moreover, there are 17 "omission areas" characterized by low national income, poor infrastructure, low population density, and small land areas along the Belt and Road. Finally, the Silk Road Economic Belt is facing structural imbalances in connectivity, and the relation features "proximity but not affinity" between China and its neighboring countries. These conclusions are friendly cautions and have constructive policy implications for the Belt and Road countries to achieve high-quality interconnection.</p> </abstract>