Exploring S-shape curves and heterogeneity effects of rumor spreading in online collective actions

Abstract

<abstract> <p>Nowadays online collective actions are pervasive, such as the rumor spreading on the Internet. The observed curves take on the S-shape, and we focus on evolutionary dynamics for S- shape curves of online rumor spreading. For agents, key factors, such as internal aspects, external aspects, and hearing frequency jointly determine whether to spread it. Agent-based modeling is applied to capture micro-level mechanism of this S-shape curve. We have three findings: (a) Standard S-shape curves of spreading can be obtained if each agent has the zero threshold; (b) Under zero-mean thresholds, as heterogeneity (SD) grows from zero, S-shape curves with longer right tails can be obtained. Generally speaking, stronger heterogeneity comes up with a longer duration; and (c) Under positive mean thresholds, the spreading curve is two-staged, with a linear stage (first) and nonlinear stage (second), but not standard S-shape curves either. From homogeneity to heterogeneity, the spreading S-shaped curves have longer right tail as the heterogeneity grows. For the spreading duration, stronger heterogeneity usually brings a shorter duration. The effects of heterogeneity on spreading curves depend on different situations. Under both zero and positive-mean thresholds, heterogeneity leads to S-shape curves. Hence, heterogeneity enhances the spreading with thresholds, but it may postpone the spreading process with homogeneous thresholds.</p> </abstract>