Scenarios for combating global warming: China's critical role as a leader in the energy transition

Abstract

<p>China is now the world leader with green capital actually creating renewable energy technologies. We address the possibility of whether China can emerge a new ecological civilization, as well as become the global leader to reach climate security. In particular, China has the potential to implement a solar energy infrastructure in the deserts of the Middle East as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, mainly in the form of concentrated solar power. The creation of this renewable energy capacity could supply electricity to much of the world, as well as power the direct air capture (DAC) of carbon dioxide with a permanent burial in the crust, in particular, using the ultramafic deposits in Oman. This realization would increase the chances of not breaching the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming target of 1.5 ℃, of course only if coupled with the termination of utilizing fossil fuels as early as possible and their replacement with renewable energy supplies globally. In this context, our pioneering model establishes that coupling a DAC-driven drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide with a rapid increase in the renewable energy capacity is more than capable of producing enough clean energy to eliminate energy insecurity globally (to all 8–10 billion humans) and to provide energy for the drawdown for the rest of the 21st century, thereby reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide to safe levels. This contingency will likely only be realized with a shift to demilitarization of the global economy. Likewise, this potential emergence of China as the global leader for climate security would likely inspire the push for a global Green New Deal to make this goal possible.</p>