Prognostic Estimator of Survival for Patients with Localized and Extended Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Abstract

The 18,352 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method for the following variables: race, gender, marital status, year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, pancreatic subsite, T-stage, N-stage, M-stage, tumor size, tumor grade, performed surgery, and radiation therapy. Because the T-stage variable did not satisfy the proportional hazards assumption, the cases were divided into cases with T1- and T2-stages (localized tumor) and cases with T3- and T4-stages (extended tumor). For estimating survival and conditional survival probabilities in each group, a multivariate Cox regression model adjusted for the remaining covariates was developed. Testing the reproducibility of model parameters and generalizability of these models showed that the models are well calibrated and have concordance indexes equal to 0.702 and 0.712, respectively. Based on these models, a prognostic estimator of survival for patients diagnosed with PDAC was developed and implemented as a computerized web-based tool.