INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND HIV PREVALENCE IN COUNTRIES OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Abstract

The HIV/AIDS threat, as a development obstacle in the underdeveloped world, has persisted for years. Globally, 37.9 million people are HIV positive and the majority, or 70% of them, live in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region with insufficient resources to fight the infection. HIV infection, if it progresses to AIDS, reduces labor force, decreases productivity, increases costs of health services and thus has a negative impact on a country’s economic performance. The research presented in the paper analyzed HIV prevalence and GDP per capita of all SubSaharan countries, disproving the initial hypothesis that the highest HIV prevalence is found among the poorest counties. Paradoxically, HIV incidence is higher in countries with higher middle income like Botswana and the Republic of South Africa. Of the ten most affected countries, only four are ranked in the least developed category. Inverse dependency between the rate of Human Development Index and HIV prevalence, examined using the regression model in the gretl statistical software, was not confirmed and thus high HIV prevalence in population does not automatically lead to extreme poverty. HIV and AIDS form one of several factors affecting economic development of the region of Sub-Saharan Africa. The main aim of the paper is to assess the influence of HIV/AIDS on the economic development of Sub-Saharan nations, using the OLS regression model in gretl, interdependency between the economic performance of a country (GDP per capita) and HIV prevalence in its active population (aged 15–45) to find out whether HIV is among the major factors negatively affecting development in the region of Sub-Saharan Africa.