Gis-base derivation of land surface temperatures from 2000 to 2022 in Abakaliki LGA, Ebonyi State, Nigeria

Abstract

The escalating rise in Land Surface Temperatures poses severe climate risks globally. However, quantifying local warming patterns and associated vulnerabilities remains crucial, particularly in data-scarce regions like sub-Saharan Africa. This study harnesses the power of multi-temporal Landsat thermal imagery, calibrated with gridded meteorological reanalysis, to characterize the shifts in the thermal landscape of Abakaliki, Local Government Area of Ebonyi State, Nigeria, over a two-decade period from 2000 to 2022. The retrieved Land Surface Temperatures were classified into five distinct regimes and compared using zonal statistics, further regressed against climatic drivers. The results unveil a significant surface warming trend, with average temperatures soaring by 15°C and minimum temperatures rising over 16 °C. Notably, the spatial heterogeneity of these impacts is mediated by surface properties, while the compression of inter-annual variability signifies a diminishing thermal resilience. Preliminary regression analysis attributes the primary causality to anthropogenic forcing, exacerbating regional climate shifts, with a robust coefficient of determination (R² = 0.86) and a statistically significant p-value (p < 0.05). Alarmingly, the amplified nocturnal temperatures now persistently exceed hazardous thresholds of 30 °C, posing mounting risks to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems, necessitating adaptive interventions. Furthermore, this observational approach underscores the indispensable role of integrated Earth observations and statistical modeling in characterizing local climate change impacts, mechanisms, and feedback, particularly in areas where in-situ monitoring networks are sparse. Ultimately, the study provides policy-relevant insights into the transformed thermal conditions that resilience strategies must now address to safeguard livelihoods under the rapid climate shifts unfolding across southeastern Nigeria and comparable environments.