Nabladot Analysis of Hybrid Theories in International Relations

Abstract

Scientific research in International Relations has produced a growing corpus of empirically grounded formal theoretical models of phenomena ranging from deterrence to systemic polarity, from conditions of peace to the onset of war. Many of these important theories contain a mix of continuous and discrete dimensions, causal variables, and parameters. Analysis and understanding of this fundamental and intriguing class of theories containing functions with a mix of continuous and discrete variables has puzzled generations of social scientists and applied mathematicians. This challenging and longstanding puzzle now has a solution. Here we demonstrate how the recently created calculus with nabladot operators is beginning to uncover previously unknown properties of hybrid international phenomena. Results include new concepts and precise principles on causal relationships, previously unknown political features, and fundamental properties of probabilistic causality, demonstrated through nabladot analysis of international events, crisis dynamics, and warfare.