Lack of Validity of Absolute Percentage Errors in Estimated Operating Room Case Durations as a Measure of Operating Room Performance: A Focused Narrative Review

Abstract

Commonly reported end points for operating room (OR) and surgical scheduling performance are the percentages of estimated OR times whose absolute values differ from the actual OR times by ≥15%, or by various intervals from ≥5 to ≥60 minutes. We show that these metrics are invalid assessments of OR performance. Specifically, from 19 relevant articles, multiple OR management decisions that would increase OR efficiency or productivity would also increase the absolute percentage error of the estimated case durations. Instead, OR managers should check the mean bias of estimated OR times (ie, systematic underestimation or overestimation), a valid and reliable metric.