Decision Curve Analysis of In-Hospital Mortality Prediction Models: The Relative Value of Pre- and Intraoperative Data For Decision-Making

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction modeling plays a pivotal part in modern clinical care, particularly in predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality. Recent modeling efforts have focused on leveraging intraoperative data sources to improve model performance. However, the individual and collective benefit of pre- and intraoperative data for clinical decision-making remains unknown. We hypothesized that pre- and intraoperative predictors contribute equally to the net benefit in a decision curve analysis (DCA) of in-hospital mortality prediction models that include pre- and intraoperative predictors. METHODS: Data from the VitalDB database featuring a subcohort of 6043 patients were used. A total of 141 predictors for in-hospital mortality were grouped into preoperative (demographics, intervention characteristics, and laboratory measurements) and intraoperative (laboratory and monitor data, drugs, and fluids) data. Prediction models using either preoperative, intraoperative, or all data were developed with multiple methods (logistic regression, neural network, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and a stacked learner). Predictive performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). Clinical utility was examined with a DCA in the predefined risk preference range (denoted by so-called treatment threshold probabilities) between 0% and 20%. RESULTS: AUROC performance of the prediction models ranged from 0.53 to 0.78. AUPRC values ranged from 0.02 to 0.25 (compared to the incidence of 0.09 in our dataset) and high AUPRC values resulted from prediction models based on preoperative laboratory values. A DCA of pre- and intraoperative prediction models highlighted that preoperative data provide the largest overall benefit for decision-making, whereas intraoperative values provide only limited benefit for decision-making compared to preoperative data. While preoperative demographics, comorbidities, and surgery-related data provide the largest benefit for low treatment thresholds up to 5% to 10%, preoperative laboratory measurements become the dominant source for decision support for higher thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: When it comes to predicting in-hospital mortality and subsequent decision-making, preoperative demographics, comorbidities, and surgery-related data provide the largest benefit for clinicians with risk-averse preferences, whereas preoperative laboratory values provide the largest benefit for decision-makers with more moderate risk preferences. Our decision-analytic investigation of different predictor categories moves beyond the question of whether certain predictors provide a benefit in traditional performance metrics (eg, AUROC). It offers a nuanced perspective on for whom these predictors might be beneficial in clinical decision-making. Follow-up studies requiring larger datasets and dedicated deep-learning models to handle continuous intraoperative data are essential to examine the robustness of our results.