A nomogram to predict lung cancer in pulmonary lesions for tuberculosis infection patients

Abstract

Similar clinical features make the differential diagnosis difficult, particularly between lung cancer and pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), without pathological evidence for patients with concomitant TB infection. Our study aimed to build a nomogram to predict malignant pulmonary lesions applicable to clinical practice. We retrospectively analyzed clinical characteristics, imaging features, and laboratory indicators of TB infection patients diagnosed with lung cancer or active pulmonary TB at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. A total of 158 cases from January 1, 2018 to May 30, 2019 were included in the training cohort. Predictive factors for lung cancer were screened by a multiple-stepwise logistic regression analysis. A nomogram model was established, and the discrimination, stability, and prediction performance of the model were analyzed. A total of 79 cases from June 1, 2019, to December 30, 2019, were used as the validation cohort to verify the predictive value of the model. Eight predictor variables, including age, pleural effusion, mediastinal lymph node, the number of positive tumor markers, the T cell spot test for TB, pulmonary lesion morphology, location, and distribution, were selected to construct the model. The corrected C-statistics and the Brier scores were 0.854 and 0.130 in the training cohort, and 0.823 and 0.163 in the validation cohort. Calibration plots showed good performance, and decision curve analysis indicated a high net benefit. In conclusion, the nomogram model provides an effective method to calculate the probability of lung cancer in TB infection patients, and it has excellent discrimination, stability, and prediction performance in detecting a malignant diagnosis of undiagnosed pulmonary lesions.