Seasonality and timing of peak abundance of Aedes albopictus in Europe: Implications to public and animal health

Abstract

Aedes albopictus is a known vector of dengue and chikungunya. Understanding the population dynamics characteristics of vector species is of pivotal importance to optimise surveillance and control activities, to estimate risk for pathogen-transmission, and thus to enhance support of public health decisions. In this paper we used a seasonal activity model to simulate the start (spring hatching) and end (autumn diapause) of the vector season. In parallel, the peak abundance of the species was assessed using both VectorNet field survey data complemented with field studies obtained from literature across the Mediterranean Basin. Our results suggest that spring hatching of eggs in the current distribution area can start at the beginning of March in southern Europe and in April in western Europe. In northern Europe, where the species is not (yet) present, spring hatching would occur from late April to late May. Aedes albopictus can remain active up to 41 weeks in southern Europe whilst the climatic conditions in northern Europe are limiting its potential activity to a maximum of 23 weeks. The peak of egg density is found during summer months from end of July until end of September. During these two months the climatic conditions for species development are optimal, which implies a higher risk for arbovirus transmission by Ae. albopictus and occurrence of epidemics.