Differential kinetics of plasma procalcitonin levels in cerebral malaria in urban Senegalese patients according to disease outcome

Abstract

<em>P. falciparum</em> malaria continues as the serial killer of over a million lives yearly, mainly for children in sub-Saharan Africa. For severe malaria, we are still on the quest for a prognostic marker of fatal outcome. We analysed the association between serum levels of Procalcitonin (PCT), a marker of septic inflammation, and clinical outcome in Senegalese patients admitted with confirmed cerebral malaria in the intensive care facility of Hopital Principal. A total of 98 patients living in the hypoendemic urban area of Dakar, Senegal, were enrolled during transmission seasons. Levels of PCT were compared between surviving vs the 26.5 % fatal cases in blood samples of the 3 days following hospitalisation. Mean PCT levels were elevated in patients with active infection, with a large range of values (0.1 to 280 nanog per mL), significantly higher on day 0 in fatal cases than in surviving (53.6 vs 27.3; P=0.01). No exact individual threshold level could indicate occurrence of fatality, however mortality could be most accurately predicted by PCT level above 69 nanog per ML and there was a very clear different profile of evolution of PCT levels on the 3 days of observation decreasing early from day 1 in surviving patients (P&lt;10–3), contrary to fatal cases. These results indicate that PCT kinetic rather than intrinsic level could be of use to predict a reduced risk of fatality in patient with cerebral malaria and could serve as potential predicting marker for severe malaria.