The spatiotemporal dynamics and structural covariates of homicide in the Republic of Korea, 2008-2017: A dynamic spatial panel data approach

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between the homicide rate and diverse indicators of social disorganization in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) using datasets collected between 2008 and 2017. Due to the statistical limitations of previous homicide research, which used either cross-sectional or longitudinal methodology, this study applied the dynamic spatial panel data model to explore both the spatial and temporal aspects of homicide. The results demonstrate that the homicide rate is spatially and temporally dependent on those of neighbouring units and the time-lagged homicide rate. Moreover, this study found that divorce rate, unemployment rate, number of males in the neighbourhood and ethnic heterogeneity have a statistically significant impact on the homicide phenomenon. This study contributes to the existing literature by taking a new approach - the dynamic spatial panel data model - to investigate the homicide phenomenon in Korea. In doing so, several suggestions are made for policymakers to respond to homicide rates. Based on the social disorganization theory, these indicators have been found to impact the social network and community members’ willingness to engage in social control. This study suggests that customized policies should be implemented to alleviate the level of social disorganization and promote social control over lethal violence.