Impacts of rainfall and temperature on photoperiod insensitive sorghum cultivar : model evaluation and sensitivity analysis

Abstract

A combination of local-scale climate and crop simulation model were used to investigate the impacts of change in temperature and rainfall on photoperiod insensitive sorghum in the Sudanian zone of Mali. In this study, the response of temperature and rainfall to yield patterns of photoperiod insensitive sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was evaluated. Following model calibration of the cultivar at varying sowing dates over two growing seasons (2013 and 2014), a long-term simulation was run using historical weather data (1981-2010) to determine the impacts of temperature and rainfall on grain yield, total biomass and water use efficiency at varying nitrogen fertilizer applications. The results showed that model performance was excellent with the lowest mean bias error (MBE) of -2.2 days for flowering and 1.4 days for physiological maturity. Total biomass and grain yield were satisfactorily reproduced, indicating fairly low RMSE values of 21.3% for total biomass and very low RMSE of 11.2 % for grain yield of the observed mean. Simulations at varying Nfertilizer application rate with increased temperature of 2 °C, 4 °C and 6 °C and decreased rainfall by 25 and 50 % (W-25% and W-50%) posed a highly significant risk to low yield compared to increase in rainfall. However, the magnitude of temperature changes showed a decline in grain yield by 10%, while a decrease in rainfall by W-25% and W-50% resulted in yield decline between 5% and 37%, respectively. Thus, climate-smart site-specific utilization of the photoperiod insensitive sorghum cultivar suggests more resilient and productive farming systems for sorghum in semi-arid regions of Mali.