ANALYSIS OF THE POLICY OF OPTIMIZING THE DURATION OF ORDER COLLECTION IN CONDITIONS OF RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS IN DEMAND

Abstract

At most industrial enterprises, current production volumes are set in accordance with the adopted policy of operating activity. This policy sets out the rule for deciding on production volumes based on information about orders received for products, losses that may occur and the volume of demand in future periods. An analysis of operating activity policies, which are most often used by industrial enterprises in random fluctuations in demand, shows that their use is accompanied by certain losses. They occur due to either partial downtime or excessive use of production capacity. In these circumstances, it is of interest to apply a policy of optimizing the duration of the collection of orders, according to which the amount of orders collected over several periods of time is evenly distributed over these periods during the execution of orders. But at the same time there is a risk of losing orders if the execution time of orders is very high. The aim of the work was to develop and analyze a model for optimizing the duration of order collection under conditions of their full execution and arbitrary laws of distribution of the probability of demand intensity (volume of orders). In the results of research, mathematical description of the expected operating effect is found depending on arbitrary statistical characteristics of demand intensity and the effect of reducing the intensity of demand in the case of increasing the duration of the collection of orders. The algorithm proposed by us allows us to find the probability functions of the average values of demand intensity for several units of time according to the data on the probability of the values of demand intensity for one period of time. The general content of the numerical method of optimizing the duration of order collection according to the criterion of the maximum expected operational effect for a single period of time is presented. The advantages of the policy of optimizing the duration of order collection, which consist in a more uniform intensity of the production process, reduction of losses from downtime and excessive capacity utilization, are shown.