Navigating the Great but Uneven Transition: State Fragility and Climate Change Vulnerability in India and Neighboring Countries

Abstract

Due to climate change, the world is experiencing a great transition in how nations pursue, distribute, and utilize resources. However, a more pressing concern posed by climate change is its exacerbation of environmental inequality, which is unevenly burdening economically marginalized countries. Among those in the marginalized group, India and its neighboring countries in the South and Southeast Asian regions have been classified as particularly vulnerable to climate change-induced risks. Focusing on state fragility as a main cause of a country’s climate change vulnerability, this research seeks to examine which configurations of state fragility dimensions contribute to heightened climate vulnerability in the regions through the utilization of fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fs/QCA). The analysis suggests that when countries exhibit (1) lower levels of fragility in cohesion and social dimensions combined with higher levels of economic, political, and external intervention dimensions of state fragility; or (2) higher levels of cohesion, economic, political, social, and external intervention dimensions, they suffer from a heightened level of climate change vulnerability. In light of the findings, this research proposes that policymakers in India and its neighboring countries implement policies that foster inclusive growth, enhance their democratic governance, and leverage international regional organizations to address vulnerability to climate change.