THE PROLIFERATION OF COVID-19 IN SAUDI ARABIA ACCORDING TO GOMPERTZ MODEL

Author:

DHAHBI ANIS BEN1,CHARGUI YASSINE1,BOULAARAS SALAH2,RAHALI SEYFEDDINE3,MHAMDI ABADA4

Affiliation:

1. Department of Physics, College of Science and Arts, at ArRass, Qassim University, Buraidah, Saudi Arabia

2. Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Arts, at ArRass, Qassim University, Buraidah, Saudi Arabia

3. Department of Chemistry, College of Science and Arts, at ArRass, Qassim University, Buraidah, Saudi Arabia

4. Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, 1006 Tunis, Tunisia

Abstract

Mathematical modeling can be a powerful tool to predict disease spread in large populations as well as to understand different factors which can impact it such as social distancing and vaccinations. This study aimed to describe the spread the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Saudi Arabia using a simple discrete variant of the Gompertz model. Unlike time-continuous models which are based on differential equations, this model treats time as a discrete variable and is then represented by a first-order difference equation. Using this model, we performed a short-term prediction of the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19 in the country and we show that the results match the confirmed reports.

Funder

Deanship of Scientific Research, on the financial support for this research

Publisher

World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Geometry and Topology,Modeling and Simulation

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