AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC NONLINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INBOUND TOURISM AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT USING PANEL THRESHOLD REGRESSION MODEL

Abstract

In order to further explore the important impact of inbound tourism on economic development, six cities such as X city are selected as the research objects. Based on the panel threshold regression model and relevant data, the dynamic nonlinear relationship between inbound tourism and the economic development of the tertiary industry is explored through mathematical empirical analysis. The specific research results are as follows. The inbound tourism of X city develops rapidly and is in the stage of accelerating development. Meanwhile, the development of inbound tourism in X city has a certain pulling effect on the development of related industries and the tertiary industry. Among them, the elasticity coefficients of inbound tourism in X city to transportation industry, accommodation and catering industry, wholesale and retail industry, finance and insurance industry, and real estate industry are 1.137, 1.104, 1.134, 1.105, and 1.062, respectively; the elasticity coefficient to the income of the tertiary industry is 0.436. Moreover, the analysis of the relationship between inbound tourism and the development of the tertiary industry in six cities shows that there is a dynamic nonlinear relationship between them, and the research results are in line with the expected hypothesis. The research results can provide scientific and effective reference for the follow-up study of inbound tourism and economics.