APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC DECISION MODELS FOR SEISMIC REHABILITATION OF STRUCTURES

Abstract

This paper outlines a decision framework that incorporates state-of-the-art earthquake engineering information and decision maker preferences into multicriteria decision models to support earthquake risk mitigation decisions. Seismic risk analysis of a structure is utilized for probabilistic estimation of the anticipated seismic losses, which in turn is used as inputs to the decision analysis for seismic rehabilitation of the structure. Three decision models are used to provide insight into the value of system interventions to reduce earthquake risks: (1) an equivalent cost model, (2) multi-attribute utility theory, and (3) joint probability decision making. Guidelines for selecting and applying multicriteria decision models for seismic rehabilitation of building structures are derived based on preferences for including risk attitudes and for measuring values. The detailed procedures for the selection and application of the decision models for seismic rehabilitation of building structures are demonstrated through a case study, where a collection of hospitals in a metropolitan area is examined.