ANALYZING THE LONG-RUN AND SHORT-RUN IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT AND MAIZE YIELD IN WESTERN HIMALAYAN REGION OF INDIA

Abstract

This study attempts to analyze the impact of climate change on the productivity of agricultural crops (wheat and maize), in the western Himalayan region of India for the period 1998–2019. The study implies second-generation panel estimation techniques. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method is used to analyze the long-and short-run effect of climatic variables i.e., average temperature, temperature range, and average precipitation on the yield of wheat and maize. The finding of the Panel ARDL shows that the average temperature of kharif season negatively affects the maize yield both in long run and short run, whereas the average temperature of rabi season has a negatively significant effect on wheat yield in long run and positively significant effect on wheat yield in short run. The average precipitation of rabi season has a positively significant effect on wheat yield both in long run and short run. The study recommends the development of advanced irrigation system, and the implementation of the insurance scheme by the Government and to adopt climate-smart farming techniques.