EAST ASIA CLIMATE CLUB: PATHWAY TOWARD 2050 NET-ZERO

Abstract

Four major and closely related economies in East Asia, i.e., China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, have committed and pledged their pathway and strategies to achieve a net-zero target in the last three years. However, the net-zero pathway and strategy developed by the governments in East Asia and most countries need to be more proactive in many ways. We define four scenarios such as the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), the government pledge scenario (GOV), the East Asia climate club scenario without forming a green club fund (CLUB without the fund), and the East Asia climate club scenario (CLUB). This study first aims to apply the E3ME-FTT model to assess the net-zero pathway and strategies the governments of these four economies have already pledged under the GOV scenario. The results show that, with current pledges, we cannot achieve the net-zero target and will cause a lot of carbon debt. Then, we assess the effectiveness of forming a climate club that the four economies commit to applying four common policy instruments and programs to meet the 2050 net-zero target under the CLUB scenario. The results suggest that creating the East Asia climate club can be an excellent program to facilitate international cooperation on climate change and help to transform it into a green economy in East Asia. It can help reduce CO2 emissions, though not yet meeting the 2050 net-zero target, and have a higher positive impact on GDP. All club members would benefit both environmentally and economically. These economies with stricter environmental regulations will become more closely related as a kind of friend-shoring. As a result, the green trades between these economies increase. To fully reach the target, the four economies must formulate additional net-zero strategies across sectors based on their unique situation and invest more in emission reduction and carbon removal R&D to enhance their capacity and lower costs.