CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY TRANSITION AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE STABILIZATION

Abstract

Climate science suggests that moving to a zero-carbon economy will not immediately halt the environmental and economic damage caused by anthropogenic greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions. Whereas air temperature increase will (almost) stop when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is stabilized, ocean temperature will continue to increase for decades. In this paper, we introduce an environmental dynamic general equilibrium model with a natural transition from fossil to renewable fuels and then use that model to explore this temperature disconnect. We find that the transition to nonfossil energy is accelerated when damages due to persistent ocean temperature rise are taken into account. Sensitivity analysis reveals that (i) economic growth increases energy consumption but accelerates the transition; (ii) energy-augmented technological change does not accelerate the transition; (iii) emissions efficiency technological change has perversely harmful effects on the energy transition; and (iv) the elasticity of substitution between dirty and clean energy sources and the discount factor are key in determining optimal energy transition path.