HOW DO WESTERN EUROPEAN FARMS BEHAVE AND RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE? A SIMULTANEOUS IRRIGATION-CROP DECISION MODEL

Abstract

Most farm adaptations are reactive actions that run the risk of locking farm systems into suboptimal long-term trajectories. This is especially the case with regard to water management as water scarcity will be aggravated by climate change. This paper looks into farm irrigation choices in combination with crop choices because a proper crop choice has the potential to reduce water requirements. It proposes an extended Ricardian model to capture multiple adaptation decisions explicitly. The new simultaneous irrigation-crop farm decision model uses spatially detailed farm-level data of over 18,000 European farms on irrigation and seven different crop choices. The analysis shows that larger farmers and farmers in less water-scarce regions that use irrigation are more sensitive to temperature increases than rain-fed agriculture. This might be explained by the fact that these farmers do not experience the real cost of water scarcity because of which they take less efficient decisions.