ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AMAN AND BORO RICE YIELDS IN BANGLADESH

Abstract

Despite substantial volumes of research on the impacts of climate change on rice productivity little attention has been paid in evaluating how these impacts differ between traditional varieties (TVs) and high yielding varieties (HYVs). In this study, Aman and Boro rice yields are examined, as respective examples. Cross-sectional time series data over 41 years for four climatic regions of Bangladesh has been used to explore this issue. Each region was examined individually and then across region comparisons were made to try to understand the impacts of major climate variables: average temperature, temperature range, and seasonal rainfall. Using both linear regression and panel data regression models, the major findings are that HYVs for both Aman and Boro rice varieties have less capacity to cope with changing climate conditions in contrast to TVs. Therefore, government should help to promote research and development aimed at developing more climate tolerant varieties, particularly temperature tolerant HYVs which have the potential to solidify the country’s food security situation at least in terms of food availability.