MODELLING DIFFUSION OF WIND POWER ACROSS COUNTRIES

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the diffusion mechanism of wind power over the last two decades in the leading countries, namely China, the United States, Germany, India and Spain. For each country, three prominent models of technology diffusion (Logistic, Bass and Gompertz) were fitted and the best model is identified based on AIC, BIC and adjusted R2criteria. The selected diffusion model in each case is then characterised with respect to the policy mechanisms. Often, research follows the "one size fits all" approach and tends to propose one model to define diffusion for all. Here we find that it is not necessarily true. The study then proposes the causal relationship between parameters of the selected model and corresponding policies along with the socioeconomic structure for a country to corroborate our findings. Further, forecasts were generated to predict the saturation point of the diffusion path and solutions are proposed to expand the diffusion curve.