MEASURING MONGOLIA’S GAINS FROM TRADE AND INCREASED INTEGRATION IN THE WORLD ECONOMY

Abstract

Following the gains from variety literature ( Broda and Weinstein , 2006 ), we estimate the welfare impact of the dramatic increase in imported varieties growth in Mongolia and find it to be considerably larger than that found in previous studies of other transitional economies. Our results show that from 1988 to 2015, the gains from variety were equal to 22 percent of Mongolia’s GDP, or 0.8 percent annually. As such, this paper measures the gains of one of the most profound trade liberalizations in modern history. Also, by calculating Novy measures of trade costs, we find that the tariff-equivalent trade costs between any of its trade partners fell dramatically since the dissolution of and Mongolia’s exit from the Soviet-led CMEA (Council of Mutual Economic Association). Our calculations suggest that the costs between Mongolia and China, now its biggest trading partner, fell from 114% to 63%. For reference, this is twice the decline of the post-NAFTA US-Mexico trade costs. Other bilateral trade cost declines (e.g. with Germany) were even greater.